Record low interest rates and declining home prices have made the spring market somewhat rosier than many analysts had predicted.
While sales of existing homes in Canada dropped by 13.7 per cent in March compared with a year earlier, the decline has slowed significantly, according to figures released yesterday by the Canadian Real Estate Association. In February, for example, sales were off by 31 per cent compared with a year ago.
"The improvement in recent months is an encouraging sign that the Canadian housing market has crossed the halfway point for this downturn," BMO Capital Markets economist Robert Kavcic wrote in a report.
Seasonally adjusted, Canadian existing home sales rose 7 per cent in March, the second month in a row that sales have increased.
Average home prices fell by 7.7 per cent to $288,641, the smallest year-over-year decline in six months.
"The report does provide some evidence that Canadian housing market activity may have improved modestly in recent months as home buyers take advantage of improved buying conditions," said Millan Mulraine, economics strategist for TD Securities.
Last week, the Toronto Real Estate Board reported a similar slowing in the decline of sales and prices, as sales fell 7 per cent in March from a year ago, the smallest year-over-year decline in five months.
The price of an average home in Toronto was also relatively stable at $362,052, down less than 5 per cent from the same month last year.
Still, analysts cautioned frosty weather in January and February may have caused some sales to spill into March, while a land-transfer tax introduced by the city of Toronto last year had possibly deflated sales a year ago. And the all important jobs numbers remain dismal as the national unemployment rate rose to 8 per cent in March, from 6.1 per cent a year ago.
"Despite two months of improved sales activity, buyers are still in control of the Canadian real estate market," Kavcic stated. "Further price declines and low mortgage rates will help trigger a recovery, but a reversal in the wave of job losses is one major prerequisite still outstanding."
Western Canada continues to face the most intense price pressure, with average home prices down by 10 per cent year-over-year in Vancouver, Calgary and Edmonton. The Atlantic provinces continued to hold up well, with Saint John, N.B., up by 13 per cent.
"With the Canadian economy continuing to be in a very intense recession, and labour market conditions continuing to worsen at an alarming pace, we expect overall housing market activity to remain soft in the coming months," analyst Mulraine said.
In the United States, there was cause for optimism. The National Association of Homebuilders' housing market index, a barometer of confidence in the market, jumped a larger-than-expected five points in April to a six-month high, the largest increase since 2003.
"Record high affordability, record low mortgage rates and the government's efforts to jump-start economic growth are giving potential buyers enough optimism to step in and take a look around," BMO Capital Markets Economist Jennifer Lee said.
*source: Tony Wong -Business Reporter, The Toronto Star